Argentina: Barley forecast remains at 4.8 mln tonnes

There has been no adjustment to Argentina’s barley production estimate, remaining at 4.8 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics reported earlier in October.

One slight concern is the light frost in the past weeks which did not significantly impact the crop but may reduce the upside yield potential. The crop remains very good, with some light rain received.

The continued heavy rain in Brazil is also a concern as it could increase the demand for Argentine imports.

A good crop outcome in Argentina is becoming increasingly critical globally.

Barley prices are well supported as the farmers remain unwilling to sell beyond current levels (1/3 of the crop is already sold, pre-harvest).

Export prices are steady while FAS prices to the farmer are moving up in an attempt to trigger further farmer selling.

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